Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 25.565547 28.375188 31.588593 35.589802 40.518543 46.505234 54.517485
2025-03-09 21.097397 24.682619 29.190778 35.484520 44.433863 57.442987 79.581104
2025-03-16 18.243341 22.250856 27.698004 36.118827 49.917881 74.513805 133.094984
2025-03-23 15.931648 20.042460 25.974181 35.946246 54.528331 95.562208 252.022589
2025-03-30 14.314412 18.485987 24.826228 36.341483 60.772117 130.388783 788.155948
2025-04-06 13.087162 17.280178 23.946368 36.940285 68.335700 190.512536 NaN
2025-04-13 12.272613 16.562666 23.699421 38.694545 80.889927 347.027807 NaN
2025-04-20 11.272910 15.405128 22.463451 37.987267 86.338062 564.436942 NaN
2025-04-27 10.579634 14.654457 21.819151 38.415061 96.967694 1494.634422 NaN
2025-05-04 10.030460 14.073468 21.383515 39.217875 111.371388 138181.741325 NaN
2025-05-11 9.456336 13.383927 20.622546 38.943176 121.319892 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 8.996358 12.845113 20.078032 39.100900 135.507525 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 8.553475 12.328707 19.575564 39.473172 156.338854 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 8.120726 11.797097 18.980810 39.451078 177.902645 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 7.786011 11.416486 18.663253 40.281089 218.245470 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 7.423637 10.953515 18.102283 40.121850 252.013353 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 7.134677 10.604151 17.751060 40.630094 313.510160 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 6.884447 10.307003 17.479149 41.375363 412.698645 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 6.718408 10.156991 17.531927 43.519661 698.712431 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 6.438282 9.761695 16.939277 42.670456 827.286047 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 6.237714 9.509246 16.668245 43.197971 1325.762944 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 6.069545 9.308657 16.501038 44.181642 3081.797332 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 5.868434 9.028016 16.096916 43.849858 6494.774569 NaN NaN